Noem and Sutton a historically rural matchup

The 2018 gubernatorial election has had a noticeably rural feel. Candidates Kristi Noem, Billie Sutton and Marty Jackley have all emphasized their farm and ranch backgrounds.

This blog previously noted that, with Noem and Sutton as the major party nominees, South Dakota is virtually guaranteed to elect its first farmer/rancher as governor since Archie Gubbrud in 1960 and 1962. That observation leads to another question: How “rural” is this election matchup, compared to history?

There’s not a perfect and obvious way to measure that, but this blog settled on a simple method. For each gubernatorial election since 1889, look at the home county of each party’s nominee, and look at the population of those counties at the time, based on the most recent census data. Smaller county populations generally equate to a more rural area.

Using this system, one discovers that the Noem-Sutton matchup is the most rural in the history of the state.

Not surprisingly, any election involving a Minnehaha County native is at the very bottom of the list. Even then, the rural nature of the Noem-Sutton contest is striking. Not only is it the most rural in state history, there really aren’t any other recent elections that are even close – the closest are Kneip-Farrar in 1970 and Janklow-McKellips in 1978.

The “least rural” election was only eight years ago, when nominees Dennis Daugaard and Scott Heidepriem both ran from Minnehaha County. Of course, that matchup again shows the imperfection of this method; Daugaard grew up on a farm near Dell Rapids and still lived there, while Heidepriem had moved to Sioux Falls after spending much of his life in Miller. Both, though, were certainly in the greater Sioux Falls orbit at the time of the candidacies.

The data is below:

Year	Republican nominee	County	Population	Democratic nominee*	County	Population	Cumulative Population
2018	Kristi Noem	Hamlin	5,903	Billie Sutton	Gregory	4,271	10,174
1944	M. Q. Sharpe	Lyman	5,045	Lynn Fellows	Aurora	5,387	10,432
1892	Charles Sheldon	Day	9,168	Peter Couchman	Walworth	2,153	11,321
1889	Arthur Mellette	Codington	7,037**	P. F. McClure	Hughes	5,044**	12,081
1908	Robert Vessey	Jerauld	2,798	Andrew E. Lee	Clay	9,316	12,114
1970	Frank Farrar	Marshall	5,965	Dick Kneip	McCook	7,246	13,211
1906	Coe Crawford	Beadle	8,081	John A. Stransky	Brule	5,401	13,482
1932	Warren E. Green	Hamlin	8,299	Tom Berry	Mellette	5,293	13,592
1936	Leslie Jensen	Fall River	8,741	Tom Berry	Mellette	5,293	14,034
1894	Charles Sheldon	Day	9,168	James A. Ward	Hughes	5,044	14,212
1914	Frank Byrne	Faulk	6,716	James W. McCarter	Edmunds	7,654	14,370
1902	Charles Herreid	McPherson	6,327	John W. Martin	Codington	8,770	15,097
1890	Arthur Mellette	Codington	7,037	Maris Taylor	Beadle	9,586	16,623
1896	Amund O. Ringsrud	Union	9,168	Andrew E. Lee	Clay	7,509	16,677
1948	George T. Mickelson	Walworth	7,274	Harold J. Volz	Tripp	9,937	17,211
1978	Bill Janklow	Moody	7,622	Roger McKellips	Union	9,643	17,265
1910	Robert Vessey	Jerauld	5,120	Chauncey L. Wood	Pennington	12,453	17,573
1938	Harlan Bushfield	Hand	9,485	Oscar Fosheim	Miner	8,376	17,861
1904	Samuel Elrod	Clark	6,942	Louis Napoleon Crill	Union	11,153	18,095
1942	M. Q. Sharpe	Lyman	5,045	Lewis W. Bicknell	Day	13,565	18,610
1898	Kirk G. Phillips	Lawrence	11,673	Andrew E. Lee	Clay	7,509	19,182
1928	Buell F. Jones	Marshall	9,596	W. J. Bulow	Union	11,099	20,695
1940	Harlan Bushfield	Hand	7,166	Lewis W. Bicknell	Day	13,565	20,731
1912	Frank Byrne	Faulk	6,716	Edwin S. Johnson	Charles Mix	14,899	21,615
1972	Carv Thompson	Meade	16,618	Dick Kneip	McCook	7,246	23,864
1924	Carl Gunderson	Davison	14,139	W. J. Bulow	Union	11,099	25,238
1926	Carl Gunderson	Davison	14,139	W. J. Bulow	Union	11,099	25,238
1922	William McMaster	Yankton	15,233	Louis Napoleon Crill	Union	11,099	26,332
1946	George T. Mickelson	Walworth	7,274	Richard Haeder	Beadle	19,648	26,922
1916	Peter Norbeck	Spink	15,981	Orville V. Rinehart	Pennington	12,453	28,434
1950	Sigurd Anderson	Day	12,294	Joe Robbie	Davison	16,522	28,816
2002	Mike Rounds	Hughes	16,481	Jim Abbott	Clay	13,537	30,018
1918	Peter Norbeck	Spink	15,981	James E. Bird	Codington	14,092	30,073
1900	Charles Herreid	McPherson	6,327	Burre Lien	Minnehaha	23,926	30,253
1920	William McMaster	Yankton	15,233	William W. Howes	Beadle	19,273	34,506
1934	William C. Allen	Brown	31,458	Tom Berry	Mellette	5,293	36,751
1968	Frank Farrar	Marshall	6,663	Robert Chamberlin	Brown	34,106	40,769
1958	Phil Saunders	Grant	10,233	Ralph Herseth	Brown	32,617	42,850
1960	Archie Gubbrud	Lincoln	12,371	Ralph Herseth	Brown	34,106	46,477
1962	Archie Gubbrud	Lincoln	12,371	Ralph Herseth	Brown	34,106	46,477
1990	George S. Mickelson	Brookings	25,207	Bob Samuelson	Meade	21,878	47,085
1930	Warren E. Green	Hamlin	8,299	David A. McCullough	Minnehaha	50,872	59,171
1986	George S. Mickelson	Brookings	24,332	Lars Herseth	Brown	36,962	61,294
1954	Joe Foss	Minnehaha	70,910	Ed C. Martin	Buffalo	1,615	72,525
1952	Sigurd Anderson	Day	12,294	Sherman Iverson	Minnehaha	70,910	83,204
1964	Nils Boe	Minnehaha	86,575	John Lindley	Brule	6,319	92,894
1974	John Olson	Minnehaha	95,209	Dick Kneip	McCook	7,246	102,455
1956	Joe Foss	Minnehaha	70,910	Ralph Herseth	Brown	32,617	103,527
1982	Bill Janklow	Moody	6,692	Mike O’Connor	Minnehaha	109,435	116,127
1966	Nils Boe	Minnehaha	86,575	Robert Chamberlin	Brown	34,106	120,681
1994	Bill Janklow	Minnehaha	123,809	Jim Beddow	Davison	17,503	141,312
1998	Bill Janklow	Minnehaha	123,809	Bernie Hunhoff	Yankton	19,252	143,061
2006	Mike Rounds	Hughes	16,481	Jack Billion	Minnehaha	148,281	164,762
2014	Dennis Daugaard	Minnehaha	169,468	Susan Wismer	Marshall	4,656	174,124
2010	Dennis Daugaard	Minnehaha	169,468	Scott Heidepriem	Minnehaha	169,468	338,936

* The Democratic column includes the Populist-Democratic “fusion” tickets for 1896, 1898 and 1900. This analysis omits third party and independent candidates, even in those instances where the third party candidate finished ahead of one of the major party nominees.

** For 1889, county populations were calculated using the 1890 census, rather than the 1880 census. This was done to account for the dramatic settlement that occurred in Dakota Territory, and then South Dakota, between 1880 and 1890. For example, Hughes County had only 268 residents in 1880, but 5,044 in 1890. The 1890 census numbers are likely much closer to the reality of 1889. Had 1880 census numbers been used, the 1889 Mellette-McClure election would have been “more rural” than Noem-Sutton.